2023 SAG Awards Predictions: Contenders Include Waymond, Wakanda and Whale

Awards ceremony commentary: Three weeks from SAG voting officially opening (it opens on Dec. 5), and the nominating committee is making the rounds, and catching up with titles and performances. The latecomers tend to have a huge disadvantage (ask Martin Scorsese and The Wolf of Wall Street). Well see what big names continue to rise

Awards ceremony commentary: Three weeks from SAG voting officially opening (it opens on Dec. 5), and the nominating committee is making the rounds, and catching up with titles and performances. The latecomers tend to have a huge disadvantage (ask Martin Scorsese and “The Wolf of Wall Street”). We’ll see what big names continue to rise on the film side.

Television predictions will be released soon.

LAST UPDATED: Nov. 17, 2022

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE |

  • Performance by a Cast Ensemble

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
    Shayla Brown, Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Kira Guloien, Kate Hallett, Judith Ivey, Rooney Mara, Sheila McCarthy, Frances McDormand, Michelle McLeod, Liv McNeil, Emily Mitchell, Ben Whishaw, August Winter
  • “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
    Jeanie Berlin, Julia Butters, Paul Dano, Judd Hirsch, Gabrielle LaBelle, David Lynch, Seth Rogen, Michelle Williams
  • “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
    Kerry Condon, Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan
  • “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Netflix)
    Dave Bautista, Madelyn Cline, Daniel Craig, Kathryn Hahn, Jessica Henwick, Kate Hudson, Janelle Monáe, Edward Norton, Leslie Odom Jr.
  • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
    Sheila Atim, John Boyega, Viola Davis, Lashana Lynch, Thuso Mbedu, Hero Fiennes Tiffin

    • Also in contention: “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios); “Elvis” (Warner Bros.); “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24); “She Said” (Universal Pictures); “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

    Last five winners: “CODA” (Apple Original Films); “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix); “Parasite” (Neon); “Black Panther” (Marvel Studios); “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • Brendan Fraser as “Charlie”
    “The Whale” (A24)
  • Colin Farrell as “Pádraic Súilleabháin”
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Austin Butler as “Elvis Presley”
    “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)
  • Bill Nighy as “Mr. Williams”
    “Living” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Gabrielle LaBelle as “Samuel ‘Sammy’ Fabelman”
    “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)

    • Also in contention: Tom Cruise, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures); Hugh Jackman, “The Son” (Sony Pictures Classics); Jonathan Majors, “Devotion” (Sony Pictures); Adam Sandler, “Hustle” (Netflix); Will Smith, “Emancipation” (Apple Original Films)

    Last five winners: Will Smith, “King Richard” (Warner Bros.); Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix); Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” (Warner Bros.); Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody” (Paramount Pictures); Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour” (Focus Features)

  • Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • Michelle Yeoh as “Evelyn Quan Wang”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Cate Blanchett as “Lydia Tár”
    “Tár” (Focus Features)
  • Michelle Williams as “Mitzi Schildkraut-Fabelman”
    “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures)
  • Danielle Deadwyler as “Mamie Till-Mobley”
    “Till” (Orion/United Artists Releasing)
  • Margot Robbie as “Nellie LaRoy”
    “Babylon” (Paramount Pictures)

    • Also in contention: Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures); Viola Davis, “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures); Ana de Armas, “Blonde” (Netflix); Jennifer Lawrence, “Causeway” (A24/Apple Original Films); Emma Thompson, “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” (Searchlight Pictures)

    Last five winners: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (Searchlight Pictures); Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (Netflix); Renée Zellweger, “Judy” (LD Entertainment and Roadside Attractions); Glenn Close, “The Wife” (Sony Pictures Classics); Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • Ke Huy Quan as “Waymond Wang”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Brendan Gleeson as “Colm Doherty”
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Eddie Redmayne as “Charles Cullen”
    “The Good Nurse” (Netflix)
  • Ben Whishaw as “August Epp”
    “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
  • Tom Hanks as “Colonel Tom Parker”
    “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

    • Also in contention: Paul Dano, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures); Ben Foster, “Emancipation” (Apple Original Films); Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans” (Universal Pictures); Brian Tyree Henry, “Causeway” (A24/Apple Original Films); Miles Teller, “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)

    Last five winners: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” (Apple Original Films); Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.); Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood” (Sony Pictures); Mahershala Ali, “Green Book” (Universal Pictures); Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Searchlight Pictures)

  • Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • Angela Bassett as “Ramonda”
    “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
  • Jamie Lee Curtis as “Deirdre Beaubeirdre”
    “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • Jessie Buckley as “Mariche”
    “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
  • Kerry Condon as “Siobhán Súilleabháin”
    “The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Carey Mulligan as “Megan Twohey”
    “She Said” (Universal Pictures)

    • Also in contention: Charmaine Bingwa, “Emancipation” (Apple Original Films); Claire Foy, “Women Talking” (MGM/United Artists Releasing); Nina Hoss, “Tár” (Focus Features); Thuso Mbedu, “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures); Gabrielle Union, “The Inspection” (A24)

    Last five winners: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” (20th Century Studios); Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari” (A24); Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” (Netflix); Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place” (Paramount Pictures); Allison Janney, “I, Tonya” (Neon)

  • Performance by a Stunt Ensemble

    And The Predicted Nominees Are:

  • “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
  • “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel Studios)
  • “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)
  • “The Woman King” (Sony Pictures)
  • “The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

    • Also in contention: “Black Adam” (Warner Bros.); “Bullet Train” (Sony Pictures); “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” (Marvel Studios); “Jurassic World: Dominion” (Universal Pictures); “Thirteen Lives” (Amazon Studios/MGM)

    Last five winners: “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing); “Wonder Woman 1984” (Warner Bros.); “Avengers: Endgame” (Marvel Studios); “Black Panther” (Marvel Studios); “Wonder Woman” (Warner Bros.)

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